China’s Growing Grip on South Africa

South Africa’s Vulnerable Position

Through loans, infrastructure, and strategic partnerships, Beijing is tightening its grip on Africa, securing geopolitical footholds that undermine sovereignty under the guise of development.

More than half of the world’s sea-borne trade, $18 trillion annually, passes through a triangle defined by three critical choke points: Djibouti’s Bab al-Mandab Strait, South Africa’s Simon’s Town, and the Solomon Islands. China already controls two. Now, South Africa, home to Simon’s Town, stands at a pivotal crossroads. While its government embraces China as a partner, the Western Cape - where Simon’s Town lies - may bear the heaviest cost. Is South Africa aware of this slow encirclement, or is it handing over the keys to its future?

China’s Economic Dominance in Africa

China’s footprint in Africa is undeniable. In 2023, trade with the continent surged to $282 billion, far surpassing the U.S. at $61 billion. Over two decades, China has infused $170 billion into African nations, building essential infrastructure—roads, railways, ports. But it’s not just investment; it’s a means of control.

The Indo-Pacific triangle showcases the stakes. In Djibouti, China poured $1.4 billion into port infrastructure and built its first overseas military base in 2017, locking down the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a vital gateway for $1 trillion in global trade. The Solomon Islands secured a 2022 security pact, solidifying Beijing's hold over the Pacific, targeting the $5 trillion Asia-Pacific shipping routes. Simon’s Town, in South Africa’s Western Cape, is the final crucial piece of this geo-strategic puzzle.

Simon’s Town - A Strategic Prize

Nestled near Cape Town, Simon’s Town is a crucial naval hub, safeguarding the South Atlantic and the Cape Route - a lifeline for oil and goods, especially if the Suez Canal is compromised. Once a British base until 1957, it remains South Africa’s primary naval station, hosting frigates and submarines that patrol these vital waters. Its deep-water harbor and strategic location make it indispensable.

With $25 billion already invested in South Africa and discussions underway for a $10 billion upgrade of Durban’s port, China’s intentions are clear. Beijing’s Djibouti playbook - offering $590 million in loans for a 10-year military base lease - could easily be replicated in Simon’s Town.

How Beijing Gains Control

The mechanics are simple: China’s Belt and Road Initiative funds massive projects—like Kenya’s $4.7 billion Standard Gauge Railway and Ethiopia’s $4 billion Addis-Djibouti line—but as repayment struggles, assets change hands. Angola owes China $20.98 billion, or 13% of Africa’s external debt, and defaulting nations risk losing key assets. Djibouti’s port stake was handed over to China, and Zambia is now on the verge of losing its power grid.

South Africa, with $14 billion in Chinese FDI since 2008, is not immune. Its state-owned Eskom, buried in a $23 billion loss, has looked to Chinese loans for power upgrades. A default could mirror Zambia’s ZESCO situation, putting energy - and potentially Simon’s Town - at risk. The value of Simon’s Town, as a naval base and key trade route guardian, makes it an undeniable prize.

A loan default or port concession could shift control, cementing China’s hold on the final point of the Indo-Pacific triangle. South Africa’s trade routes, its key mineral supplies (including 60% of China’s manganese), and its military positioning are all at stake. Once China establishes its grip, reversing it becomes nearly impossible.

BRICS only strengthens China’s influence. South Africa, a "Strategic Comprehensive Partner" of China, hosted joint naval exercises off its coast in 2023, near Simon’s Town. The New Development Bank aims to allocate 30% of its $50 billion in loans to local currencies by 2026, diminishing Western influence. At the 2023 BRICS summit, $5.2 billion was pledged for South African infrastructure, with 70% funded by Chinese firms, further deepening South Africa’s dependence.

Trade flows also skew in China’s favor, with exports to Africa totaling $179 billion in 2024, while imports remain lower at $117 billion.

A Willing Partner or a Captive State?

For South Africa, BRICS summits - such as the 2023 Johannesburg meeting - signal alignment, but at what cost? Joint military exercises and trade agreements tie Pretoria to Beijing’s strategic agenda, potentially sacrificing policy autonomy. Simon’s Town, once a national asset, could transform into a bargaining chip, becoming less of a South African stronghold and more of a Chinese foothold.

Is South Africa’s government unaware, or complicit in this gradual shift of sovereignty?

The ANC has called China’s Communist Party a “guiding lodestar” in its 2015 document, blocking the Dalai Lama’s visits and pressuring Taiwan to move its embassy to appease Beijing. Yet public debate on this growing influence is muted. A 2023 Afrobarometer survey found only 37% of South Africans view China positively, while ANC elites continue to praise Beijing. Unlike Western aid with clear strings attached, China’s influence seeps in quietly. Countries like Kenya and Zambia are already struggling with crippling debt, and South Africa’s $22 billion debt to China could follow a similar path, exacerbated by a dangerously high debt-to-GDP ratio of 75%.

Simon’s Town is not yet lost, but the creeping pattern of control is unmistakable. The Western Cape, home to this critical naval base, must remain vigilant. With a demographically distinct population that has never supported the ANC provincially, it holds the potential to resist - if it recognizes the looming threat.

Resisting Chinese Influence

China's grip on Djibouti and the Solomon Islands is firm, with Simon’s Town now standing as the final piece. South Africa’s sovereignty is eroding under Beijing’s economic reach—through loans, ports, and the BRICS partnership. But the Western Cape offers a potential counterpoint. Unlike the ANC-led national government, which has embraced China, the region is ideologically distinct—55% of voters supported the Democratic Alliance in 2024, rejecting Pretoria’s alignment with Beijing.

Cape Independence could free the region from policies that favor China. With a GDP of $53 billion - 14% of South Africa’s total - and strategic ports like Cape Town, the Western Cape could strengthen ties with the US or EU, nations that better align with its values. This shift could protect Simon’s Town, securing it from Beijing’s reach, while a pro-Western majority could offer a strategic position against the ANC’s policies.

Half the world’s trade passes through this triangle, with the Cape guarding the South Atlantic gate. Independence isn’t just a matter of freedom—it’s a matter of survival. While South Africa may sleep through China’s quiet encroachment, the Western Cape can awaken and stand firm, holding the line.

Dr. Joan Swart

Chief of Staff of the Referendum Party | Military Expert