On the Brink: The EU’s Moment to Lead or Falter

The European Union finds itself at a crossroads, thrust into the spotlight by a widening rift between Ukraine and the United States. The tension boiled over when the Trump administration pursued peace talks with Russia, bypassing both its European allies and Ukraine itself. This audacious move has jolted Europe into reassessing its role in a conflict that reverberates along its eastern borders.

The urgency is palpable. Friedrich Merz, Germany’s likely next chancellor, put it starkly: “We cannot afford to be sidelined. This is a moment for Europe to lead, not follow.” His words echo a mounting frustration across the continent, sparked by the recent White House showdown between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Trump’s apparent indifference to Ukraine’s sovereignty and his deference to Russian President Vladimir Putin left European leaders reeling. Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany minced no words, condemning Trump’s stance as a betrayal of shared values. “Europe must stand unequivocally with Ukraine against Russian aggression,” he declared. France’s Emmanuel Macron pressed for a peace process that amplifies Europe’s voice, while Poland’s Donald Tusk offered Kyiv a resolute pledge: “Ukraine, Poland stands with you.”

This unified front underscores Europe’s resolve to defend Ukraine’s territorial integrity, a commitment sharpened by Trump’s actions, which have sown doubts about America’s dependability. Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, branded Trump’s approach “appeasement,” a pointed critique which reflects Europe’s exasperation at being marginalised. The message is clear: the EU can no longer rely on a partner willing to sidestep its allies for its own ends. To secure a durable peace, Europe must chart its own course with bold, decisive action.

One provocative idea gaining traction is a common European army, a vision Zelenskyy himself has championed. “Europe’s security cannot hinge on the whims of an erratic U.S. administration,” he argued. Such a force would empower the EU to confront threats, whether from Russia or beyond, without awaiting Washington’s nod. It would also lessen Europe’s reliance on the United States; a dependency laid bare by recent events. Yet the proposal stirs debate. Critics caution that a unified military could fray NATO’s cohesion or provoke a backlash from a U.S. administration sensitive to any perceived challenge. Others highlight the practical hurdles, noting that blending national armies would test Europe’s jealously guarded sovereignty over defence.

No less vital is the push for a cohesive European foreign policy. The Trump- Zelenskyy clash exposed the pitfalls of disjointed diplomacy. When Europe speaks in discord rather than unison, its influence wanes. A unified strategy would sharpen the EU’s clout, enabling tougher sanctions on Russia, synchronised diplomatic pressure and unwavering support for Ukraine. But forging consensus among 27 nations, each protective of its own voice, remains a daunting task.

Dissenters

Compounding the challenge are internal dissenters. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico have repeatedly stymied progress, wielding vetoes to block sanctions on Russia and aid to Ukraine. “Orbán and Fico are playing a dangerous game,” warned Estonian MEP Riho Terras, pointing to the peril of division at a critical juncture. To counter this, the EU is weighing creative solutions. One tactic, known as “constructive abstentions,” could let decisions advance if dissenting states step aside rather than obstruct. Economic leverage offers another lever: the EU could withhold billions in cohesion funds, a prospect that might sway Budapest and Bratislava. “Money talks,” a senior official confided anonymously. “If Orbán wants his €10 billion, he’ll have to compromise.”

The EU, desperate to act, is now turning to a mix of legal ingenuity, economic leverage, and diplomatic gambits to break the deadlock. One option is “constructive abstentions,” a treaty loophole that could let decisions slip through if Hungary or Slovakia abstain rather than obstruct, perhaps secured through quiet concessions on unrelated issues. Then there’s Article 7, the EU’s rarely used “nuclear option,” which could suspend their voting rights for flouting democratic norms, though it demands a unanimity that Poland might thwart. “We’ve already seen Hungary’s judiciary eroded,” Terras noted. “The legal grounds are there.”

Hope for a resolve

Economically, the EU holds a trump card: billions in cohesion funds that could be withheld. Diplomacy has already notched wins. Last December, Orbán was coaxed out of the room during a vote on Ukraine’s accession talks, letting the other 26 leaders proceed. “It was a masterstroke,” a diplomat recalled. “We outmanoeuvred him.” Shaming these leaders publicly could also chip away at their domestic support, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urging: “The people of Hungary and Slovakia deserve better; they’re being dragged into isolation by leaders who prioritise Putin over prosperity.” Looking ahead, the EU is mulling structural fixes: expanding qualified majority voting via “passerelle clauses” to sidestep unanimity, or leaning on “enhanced cooperation” to let willing states forge ahead, as seen in the Eurozone. Emergency powers under Article 122 could frame the Ukraine crisis as dire enough to bypass vetoes altogether.

Still, risks loom. Economic pressure might push Hungary and Slovakia toward Russia or China, while legal overreach could spark cries of hypocrisy.

“We have to be careful,” French President Emmanuel Macron cautioned. “The EU is a union of sovereign states, not a federation.” But inaction is not an option. The EU’s response will shape its global heft. Decisiveness could crown it a geopolitical force while dithering might embolden Moscow and unravel Eastern Europe. “This is our moment,” Merz insisted. “Europe must rise to the challenge.” To do so, it must bolster Ukraine with aid, lead peace talks to fill the U.S. vacuum, and assert its autonomy with stronger defences—all while proving it can tame its internal rebels.

“The world is watching,” Zelenskyy said. “Europe’s future hangs in the balance.” The stakes could not be higher.

Luciano Campisi

Luciano Campisi | Student