Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia’s Pro-Russian Dictator in the Making

Fool Me Once…

Thomas Friedman, the renowned American journalist, once laid out a crucial rule for understanding the Middle East:

“What people tell you in private in the Middle East is irrelevant. All that matters is what they will defend in public in their own language. Anything said to you in English, in private, doesn’t count.”

Yet, despite this fundamental truth, Western policymakers in Washington and Brussels have repeatedly ignored it when dealing with Armenia—the first Christian nation, which, geographically, historically, and culturally, is part of the broader Middle East.

Since Armenia’s independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, its leaders have consistently deceived Western politicians - lying about their ties to Russia, the extent of corruption, human rights abuses, and election integrity. This deception has allowed them to secure Western funding while avoiding meaningful reforms and maintaining a Kremlin-directed course. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is no exception.

Pashinyan’s Troubling Record

Pashinyan’s public rhetoric - delivered in Armenian - reveals a stark contrast to the Western-friendly image he projects abroad. At a recent meeting with the Armenian community in Switzerland, he questioned the historical facts of the Armenian Genocide, prompting the Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention to issue a genocide denial warning.

His efforts to rewrite Armenia’s history, weaken its sovereignty, and align with historic adversaries - Turkey and Azerbaijan - are alarming. Among his proposals:

And the list goes on.

The U.S. Blind Spot

In a recent report, I highlighted evidence that the U.S. State Department has ignored information about Pashinyan’s ties to Russia and the broader implications for Armenia. Alarmingly, criticism of Pashinyan within the Biden administration has been suppressed, in favor of a narrative promoted by Russia and Turkey, both of which support Pashinyan's regime.

However, with shifting dynamics in Washington, the new administration is unlikely to fall for Pashinyan’s manipulations. His recent, largely unsuccessful visit to Washington is a clear indication of this change. The Trump-Vance team is likely to scrutinize Pashinyan for his abandonment of fellow Christian Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh (2020–2023) and for enabling Russia to maintain a strong economic and military presence in Armenia.

There are already growing calls from the Armenian community to investigate the Biden administration’s role in Azerbaijan’s ethnic cleansing of Artsakh. I stand with these calls and urge the Trump administration to also investigate what U.S. intelligence knew about Pashinyan’s rise to power in 2018, as well as his role in Armenia’s capitulation during the 2020 war.

Pashinyan's Deception

This truth is difficult for many liberal politicians to accept. Pashinyan, a college drop-out turned sensationalist journalist, was handpicked by Putin in 2018 to replace Armenia’s former president, Serge Sargsyan. Since then, Pashinyan has consistently deceived Western leaders about his intentions to pivot toward the West.

His current strategy seems clear: provide Putin with a reason to ignore Russia's contractual obligations to intervene on Armenia’s behalf during an Azerbaijani invasion, something his own Foreign Ministry believes is imminent, while doing nothing to challenge Russia's control over Armenia.

The loss of Nagorno-Karabakh and the territorial concessions to Azerbaijan since 2020, all under Pashinyan’s watch, have sparked public outrage and eroded trust in his leadership. His government’s perceived submission to Azerbaijani and Turkish interests, which ultimately serves Russia’s agenda, has further damaged its credibility and legitimacy in the eyes of the overwhelming majority of Armenians.

The Silent Repression at Home

Pashinyan’s erratic leadership and persistent demoralization of his electorate have left his approval rating hovering between 11–13 percent, and even lower when factoring in the administrative apparatus and internal security forces under his control. Despite this overwhelming lack of public support, the executive, legislative, and judicial branches of Armenia remain firmly under his control, with no meaningful challenges to his rule.

Nepotism in Armenia has reached unprecedented levels, as loyalists with little to no relevant experience are appointed to lead key law enforcement and security agencies. These appointments have undermined the country’s institutions, weakening their ability to serve the Armenian people effectively.

In recent months, the regime has escalated its repression against opposition political leaders and activists. Members of the largest pro-Western opposition party, the center-right National Democratic Alliance (NDA), have been targeted with a range of punitive measures, from travel restrictions and administrative harassment to legal proceedings and heavy fines. Dozens of NDA activists now face prosecution simply for exercising their fundamental rights to free assembly and freedom of speech.

Armenia’s riot police force, known for its aggressive tactics against protesters, has seen growing budgetary allocations, further signaling the regime’s commitment to silencing dissent.

The Urgent Need for Western Support: Lessons from Georgia

While Armenia's people yearn for change, their longing for a pro-Western future has never been stronger. However, threatened by Russia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan, and manipulated by their own increasingly authoritarian leader, they need credible Western support to bring about real transformation.

Armenians have demonstrated their resilience before. In 1988, they triggered a movement that contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Today, they are again ready to defend their homeland - the cradle of Christian civilization - but they need a helping hand. The West cannot afford to ignore their struggle.

For years, Georgia’s Bidzina Ivanishvili successfully deceived the West into believing his country was pivoting toward the West. We saw what happened in October 2024, and we now know who truly controls Georgia. Armenia cannot afford to make the same mistake with Pashinyan, who continues to serve Putin's interests.

As the saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.”

David A. Grigorian

Senior Fellow | Harvard Kennedy School