‘Talk Right, Govern Left’ - Why Britain Can’t Fix its Migrant Crisis

The Island Tradition

Over a thousand years ago, King Cnut the Great of England and the North Sea Empire was having difficulty in expressing to his pagan subjects that his power did not extend to control over the tide. Cnut finally had to prove his point by dragging his throne to the bottom of the beach at low tide and sitting in it until his courtiers were forced to wade in and save their king from drowning.

Thus the pagans were converted.

Though the same trick seems to be taking a little longer in 2025, Rishi Sunak - the last Conservative PM left standing when the music stopped - might also be vindicated for his failure. Leaders, even democratic ones, need to be aligned with greater forces if they are to succeed.

The Crisis in Numbers

Over the past three years, Britain has received an estimated 750,000 illegal migrants. 36,816 were detected crossing the English Channel in small boats during 2024 alone - a 20% jump from the previous year.

The main entry routes are well known: others hide in lorries on ferries, or arrive on commercial flights and simply overstay their visas. Out of 125,474 migrants who arrived via small boats since 2018, a mere 3,788 - just 3% - have been deported.

Despite Britain paying £476 million to France for border control cooperation, the French Navy has been observed multiple times towing dinghies into UK waters, where British coastguard and Royal National Lifeboat Institution (RNLI) vessels take over. After being brought ashore, many migrants are transferred by taxpayer-funded buses to various parts of Britain, further fueling public backlash, especially as the UK grapples with a cost-of-living crisis and rising homelessness.

After 14 years’ of failure by successive Conservative governments, the final insult came with the so called ‘Rwanda Plan,’ - a £700m scheme which managed to process just four migrants in a detention centre set up in safe, stable, Rwanda for the purposes of triaging the needs of the hundreds of thousands who flock to UK shores illegally.

Like Cnut’s throne stunt, the Rwanda Plan was effective for what it illustrated rather than anything it achieved.

Why Can’t We Turn the Tide?

Politicians from different parties blame each other for the stalemate. Conservatives highlight Labour’s historical leniency, while Labour condemns Conservative cuts to border security and deportation budgets. Analysts, however, note that both parties lack a coherent long-term plan, leaving the nation stuck with a broken asylum system.

Regardless of whether Conservative or Labour parties occupy Downing Street, their policies have failed to stop the continuous flow of people entering the country. Today, as the new Labour government approach their first year in power, the opposition are starting to engage in a lively exchange of ideas. So total was the Conservative Governments’ failure that their party’s very existence is now under threat. Yet the Labour government ushered in by default, as their own leader admits, won a 'loveless victory' and are probably the most unpopular ruling Party in modern times.

Plans for Renewal

Talking to the Triggenometry talk show, the Conservative party leader Kemi Badenoch displayed a refreshing introspection that totally lacks in American party politics.

"We talked right but governed left, sounding like Conservatives but acting like Labour,” she said. “We deserved to lose.”

Ultimately, a mix of international human rights obligations and legal interventions by European courts hamstrung the conservatives' deportation efforts. Inevitably, Badenoch is now being asked whether she sees a future for Britain in the ECHR.

“What I’m not going to do is say ‘we’ll leave the ECHR and work it out later.’ That’s what we did with Brexit and look what happened."

“Leadership is about forging a path and taking people in a particular direction. The party under David Cameron was very different from the party under Theresa May, different to the party under Boris Johnson and so on. So you have to look at the person at the top and then you will understand what is going to happen.”

But referring to the chaos of Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union is a risky gambit when the vote for Brexit was largely inspired by the very migration concerns that drove her voters to UKIP and now Reform.

With the oldest party in British politics now faces serious slump in confidence, even Badeoch’s front bench grandees are conceding that decisive action may involve adopting uneasy bedfellows. Among them is Greg Smith - the big society firebrand turned Shadow Secretary for Business and Trade. Though quick to qualify his remark with the fact that elections are a long way off, he has admitted that avoiding a socialist future might mean 'playing nicely' with other parties.

Stubborn Saxon Justice

Divided over humanitarian concerns for migrants from war-torn or oppressive regimes, public sentiment remains a major obstacle to migration reform. Many argue that Britain’s resources are stretched too thin and that national borders must be enforced but, until a workable solution for triage emerges, the crisis will likely continue to intensify, feeding public discontent and straining the country’s social services.

Statistics from December 2024 reveal how tough life is becoming for many residents. 56% of British households reported an increase in cost of living over the previous month. 123,100 households currently live in temporary accommodation, a figure up nearly 16.3% from last year. Further stoking controversy is the government’s use of taxpayer-funded hotels to house undocumented migrants, sometimes in luxury settings. Since November 2024, the Home Office reports that 38,079 asylum seekers occupy 218 hotels nationwide, including rural areas unprepared for sudden population spikes. Investigations by journalists uncovered 16th-century manor houses converted into migrant accommodations, intensifying local frustrations.

Meanwhile, local councils protest they lack both the resources and the legal authority to address national immigration policy failures. Many community members question why the government invests so heavily in services for illegal arrivals when existing shelters remain underfunded and thousands of British families remain on waiting lists.

It is a long road to the Summer of 2029 - the latest date at which the UK must hold a general election and things may well have to get worse before they get better. However, the pressure today is definitely from the right. Political parties in the UK don't all publish their exact membership, but it is certain that Reform have now overtaken the Conservatives. As its membership creeps toward a third of a million, it looks set to be the largest party by membership in the UK.

Amid the armada of small boats, there are signs that a great vessel is slowly starting to change course.

Adam Starzynski

Journalist | Foreign Policy Analyst