War and Dishonour: Is Armenia on the Chopping Block after Ukraine?

National Peril

Following the Munich Agreement in 1938, Winston Churchill famously stated in his response to Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain: "You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war." As Churchill correctly predicted then, this was not the end, but the beginning of the troubles for Europe.

If you think that the only current day equivalent of this story is the U.S.'s stance on Ukraine, think again. A similar disaster is brewing now before our eyes in Armenia, a small but proud Christian nation turned satellite state of Russia, which will make same-scale implications for Eastern Europe and broader Middle East.

In the autumn of 2020, in a military offensive greenlighted by Russia, the armies of Azerbaijan's dictator Ilham Aliyev unleashed a brutal war against the self-defence army of the Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh. Putin's puppet, Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, was quick to sign a capitulation agreement after 44 days of fighting, giving away by pen roughly three times more territory than the Azeri army was able to wrestle away by force. Aliyev used the support of Turkey, Pakistan, Israel, and Syrian jihadists to achieve this objective.

Three years later, in September 2023, he nearly starved the remaining 120,000 residents of Nagorno-Karabakh by blockading access to the rest of the world for nine months and forcing all of them out of their millennia-old homeland in a blitzkrieg, in what has been characterised by scholars as the first genocidal campaign of the 21st century.

Unlike Ukraine, Armenia had no allies in this war, because in contrast to President Zelensky, Pashinyan chose not to have any. When Russia abandoned Armenia, Pashinyan was also asked to turn down offers for assistance from Western countries. He even made sure his own population did not get adequately involved—he lied through his teeth up until a week prior to capitulation saying that "we are winning" while failing to declare a nation-wide mobilisation, something that Zelensky did within hours of Russia's attack on Ukraine in February 2022.

Now, all of those Western politicians who never lifted a finger to help Armenia—a country that played a pivotal role in bringing the Soviet Union to its knees—during or after the 2020-23 catastrophe are cheering yet another round of imminent concessions to be made by Pashinyan to Aliyev. The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also joined the "peace" choir.

According to Armenia's Foreign Ministry, the agreement On the Establishment of Peace and Interstate Relations between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan is ready for signing. Not surprisingly though, the Pashinyan regime refuses to publish the full text of the draft agreement, undoubtedly fearing a public backlash. His approval rating was a meagre 11 percent before this “peace” treaty debacle.

The fact of the matter is that Azerbaijan continues to occupy Armenian territory, preventing 120,000 refugees from returning to their homes under international protection, and has raised anti-Armenian propaganda to the level of state policy. Azerbaijani demands also include constitutional amendments by Armenia.

A Raw Deal

The agreement is being signed against the backdrop of ongoing hostility, demands for new territory and corridor, and the presence of Armenian war prisoners in Azerbaijan; all accompanied by continued military build-up. Finally, Azerbaijan is demanding the removal of the EU observer mission currently stationed along the Armenian-Azeri border. Why, you may ask, do this if you are not planning on attacking again?

Given the geopolitical and economic reality, Armenia will cease to be a viable state if this arrangement is allowed to proceed. The next Azeri aggression will come in a matter of months, likely sending two million Armenians fleeing for their lives, since Pashinyan's army will most certainly be asked to stand down and not interfere.

If allowed to go through, this will be nothing short of a Versailles-style humiliation of Germany following World War I which, as John Maynard Keynes argued in his seminal The Economic Consequences of the Peace, then led to World War II.

In the 21st century version of events, this is a plan to humiliate another nation, which wants to live free of Russian tyranny, by subjugating it to Russia's proxy in the region - Azerbaijan.

To put things in context, just imagine Zelensky agreeing to give away territory, rights to claim damages, and future security guarantees in the context of Ukraine in exchange for an agreement that will in effect give Russia time to regroup and attack again.

False Peace

I get it: kicking a guy when he is down has become a thing in global politics. But, as Newton’s Third Law states, every action has an equal and opposite reaction. The history of the Armenian resistance since the Genocide of 1915-23 and the simple fact that the nation is still alive will provide credible evidence for this assertion and serve as a warning to double-dealers who regard Armenia as a pawn in their larger global strategy.

In sum, this shameful agreement involves deep one-sided strategic concessions made by the Pashinyan regime to Azerbaijan and inflicts irreparable damage to Armenia's national security. It is a formula for a new war, not peace and, in the words of a statement issued by the National Democratic Alliance (Armenia's largest pro-Western centre-right party), a "renunciation of national identity and sovereignty, and a surrender."

It is a path to the integration of Armenia into Erdogan's neo-Ottoman vision and eventual death.

Friends of Armenia around the world should raise their voices against the destruction of Armenia; the first Christian nation that found itself alone against an overwhelming destructive force. Standing up for the little guy may not be popular these days but remains the moral thing to do.

David A. Grigorian

Senior Fellow | Harvard Kennedy School